For many Brits, the notion of “midterms” is a very foreign concept. In the UK the closest thing we have to midterms are by-elections and, prior to the recent rise of UKIP, they went largely unnoticed by the vast majority of the British population. Compare this with America and the situation is different entirely. The midterms play a crucial role in US politics, allowing the electorate to hold the legislative into account and, more significantly, send a message to the executive. On Tuesday that message was loud and clear; the electorate had grown tired of the Democrats and had lost faith in President Obama.
Still, this “message” was based solely on what I had gathered from different reports and, quite frustratingly, they were all telling me different things. Many said the defeat was a huge blow for the Democrats whilst a few said it was simply down to the sixth year curse and extremely unfriendly geography. As an outsider peering in, the whole thing just looked like a huge spectacle. I needed answers, and concrete ones at that, and after reading numerous articles and asking my twitter followers what they thought a few things very quickly became clear:
Obama is officially a lame duck president
The loss of the Senate to the Republicans has well and truly solidified Obama’s status as a lame duck president; the Republicans have even gone so far as to imply that the vote was a referendum on his policy. When a president becomes a lame duck they are effectively rendered powerless and lose their political clout and ability to influence and drive policy making. However Bush was a lame duck president, as were presidents Carter, Ford and Hoover before him…so is being a lame duck really that bad? Well it effectively all comes down to public opinion. Obama’s aggressive foreign policy, which has led to American involvement in crises both home and oversees, have left him unpopular with the American public, his approval rates are low (though surprisingly not as low as they have been in the past) and he’s thus been unable to win over the electorate.
The Republicans have main huge gains
Many thought the race would be close, instead the Republicans won comfortably. Not only did they increase their majority in the House of Representatives, but they also managed to take control of the Senate for the first time since 2006. What’s more the Republicans even managed to take a number of governorships away from the Democrats, including President Obama’s home state of Illinois.
Hilary 2016 looks bleak but it’s not completely doomed
So what does this mean for Hilary Clinton? It’s no secret that she’s been eyeing the oval office for a number of years now; does the result mean she can kiss hopes of a presidency in 2016 goodbye? Well…not necessarily. Clinton has made obvious steps to distance herself from Obama over the years, so the midterm results won’t impact her as much as they would have had she still retained her position as Secretary of State. If the economy continues to grow and wages continue to climb the American public may still get behind her but that, of course, is a lot of ifs.
Only time will tell
Ultimately, as often is the case with politics, only time will tell. If Obama wants to make a real different in the last two years of his presidency he’ll have to act fast during this coming lame duck season rather than wait until next year when the Republicans will officially be in the majority. Arguably the proposed appointment of Loretta Lynch as the first black attorney general suggests he’s doing just that. But since time is of the essence and Obama has very few cards left to play, he’ll have to do everything in his power to ensure that his last two years as president don’t completely go to waste.
Political Me 